Braves at Twins
Last play · Drake Baldwin pops out to third baseman Brooks Lee.
Win probability
Twins100%
ATL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 4 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kody Clemens singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Josh Bell scores. (inning 7) — +22% Twins
7Brooks Lee singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Kody Clemens scores. Ryan Kreidler to 2nd.4–6
7Kody Clemens singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Josh Bell scores.4–5
6Austin Riley called out on strikes.4–4
6Ozzie Albies out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Michael Harris II scores. Lane Thomas to 2nd.3–4
6Lane Thomas singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Matt Olson scores. Michael Harris II to 3rd.2–4
5Kody Clemens doubles (21) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Luke Keaschall scores. Byron Buxton scores. Josh Bell to 3rd.1–4
5Josh Bell walks. Kaelen Culpepper scores. Luke Keaschall to 3rd. Byron Buxton to 2nd.1–2
5Ronald Acuña Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Austin Riley scores. Jim Jarvis to 3rd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
