Tigers at Twins
Last play · Eduardo Valencia strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
DET 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 0 – 5 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kody Clemens homers (23) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 4) — +16% Twins
8Walker Jenkins homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Kaelen Culpepper scores.1–11
7Ryan Jeffers homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.1–9
6Brooks Lee singles on a line drive to right fielder Zach McKinstry. Royce Lewis scores. Walker Jenkins scores. Luke Keaschall scores. Brooks Lee out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Zach McKinstry to shortstop Kevin McGonigle.1–8
6Hao-Yu Lee homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.1–5
5Ryan Jeffers homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Luke Keaschall scores. Kody Clemens scores.0–5
4Kody Clemens homers (23) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
1Kody Clemens out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Zach McKinstry. Luke Keaschall scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
