White Sox at Twins
Last play · Colson Montgomery pops out to third baseman Brooks Lee.
Win probability
Twins100%
CWS 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 0 – 4 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Larnach doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Ryan Jeffers scores. Josh Bell scores. (inning 1) — +16% Twins
9Braden Montgomery singles on a ground ball to center fielder Walker Jenkins. Sam Antonacci scores. Miguel Vargas to 3rd.1–5
7Luke Keaschall homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.0–5
3Josh Bell singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tristan Peters. Ryan Jeffers scores.0–4
1Trevor Larnach doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Ryan Jeffers scores. Josh Bell scores.0–3
1Josh Bell singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Brooks Lee scores. Ryan Jeffers to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
