D-backs at Mets
Last play · Luis Torrens grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
Win probability
Mets0%
AZ 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 1 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gabriel Moreno doubles (4) on a fly ball to right fielder Brett Baty. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Jose Fernandez to 3rd. (inning 7) — -22% D-backs
8Gabriel Moreno doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Adrian Del Castillo scores.7–1
8Jose Fernandez grounds out, third baseman Bo Bichette to first baseman Mark Vientos. Geraldo Perdomo scores.6–1
8Adrian Del Castillo doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Jared Young. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Geraldo Perdomo to 3rd.5–1
7Jorge Barrosa triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Brett Baty. Alek Thomas scores.4–1
7Tim Tawa out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Gabriel Moreno scores.3–1
7Alek Thomas reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Mark Vientos. Jose Fernandez scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd.2–1
7Gabriel Moreno doubles (4) on a fly ball to right fielder Brett Baty. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Jose Fernandez to 3rd.1–1
1Luis Robert Jr. homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
