Twins at Mets
Last play · Byron Buxton strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
MIN 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 2 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mark Vientos singles on a fly ball to right fielder Matt Wallner. Brett Baty scores. Francisco Alvarez to 3rd. (inning 8) — +29% Mets
8Mark Vientos singles on a fly ball to right fielder Matt Wallner. Brett Baty scores. Francisco Alvarez to 3rd.2–3
6Byron Buxton homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
4Francisco Alvarez doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Francisco Lindor scores.1–2
4Victor Caratini out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Trevor Larnach scores.1–1
1Francisco Lindor singles on a ground ball to third baseman Royce Lewis. Bo Bichette scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
