Twins at Mets
Last play · Tyrone Taylor strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Mets0%
MIN 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 3 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Keaschall singles on a ground ball to left fielder Carson Benge. James Outman scores. Ryan Jeffers to 3rd. Kody Clemens to 2nd. (inning 9) — -34% Twins
9Matt Wallner walks. Ryan Jeffers scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd. Luke Keaschall to 2nd.5–3
9Luke Keaschall singles on a ground ball to left fielder Carson Benge. James Outman scores. Ryan Jeffers to 3rd. Kody Clemens to 2nd.4–3
7Luke Keaschall singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Kody Clemens scores.3–3
6Byron Buxton homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Matt Wallner scores.2–3
3Francisco Lindor homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Carson Benge scores. Marcus Semien scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
