Twins at Mets
Last play · Trevor Larnach strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
MIN 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 7 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Jeffers hits a grand slam (3) to left field. Brooks Lee scores. Trevor Larnach scores. Josh Bell scores. (inning 8) — -45% Twins
9Tristan Gray singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Brooks Lee scores.8–10
8Bo Bichette doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Brett Baty scores. Marcus Semien scores. Tommy Pham scores.7–10
8Ryan Jeffers hits a grand slam (3) to left field. Brooks Lee scores. Trevor Larnach scores. Josh Bell scores.7–7
6Tristan Gray homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.3–7
4Carson Benge homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.2–7
4Josh Bell singles on a line drive to left fielder Carson Benge. Brooks Lee scores. Trevor Larnach to 2nd.2–6
2Luis Robert Jr. doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Bo Bichette scores. Juan Soto to 3rd.1–6
2Francisco Alvarez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Carson Benge scores.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
