Rockies at Mets
Last play · MJ Melendez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets0%
COL 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 1 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 52.9% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+169 / -207
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Baty singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Ronny Mauricio scores. Bo Bichette scores. Francisco Alvarez to 2nd. (inning 8) — +22% Mets
8Brett Baty singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Ronny Mauricio scores. Bo Bichette scores. Francisco Alvarez to 2nd.4–3
7Troy Johnston singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tyrone Taylor, deflected by second baseman Marcus Semien. Hunter Goodman scores. TJ Rumfield scores.4–1
6Jake McCarthy doubles (5) on a line drive to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Kyle Karros scores. Ezequiel Tovar to 3rd.2–1
5TJ Rumfield grounds out, pitcher Freddy Peralta to first baseman Mark Vientos. Brenton Doyle scores. Mickey Moniak to 3rd. Hunter Goodman to 2nd.1–1
2Marcus Semien grounds into a double play, second baseman Tyler Freeman to shortstop Ezequiel Tovar to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Brett Baty scores. Mark Vientos out at 2nd. Marcus Semien out at 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
