Nationals at Mets
Last play · Daylen Lile strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
WSH 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 0 – 8 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+149 / -181
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcus Semien reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Jorbit Vivas. MJ Melendez scores. Mark Vientos scores. Brett Baty to 3rd. Marcus Semien to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman Jorbit Vivas. (inning 4) — +17% Mets
4Juan Soto homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Ronny Mauricio scores.0–8
4Bo Bichette out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder James Wood. Carson Benge scores.0–6
4Carson Benge singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Brett Baty scores. Marcus Semien scores.0–5
4Marcus Semien reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Jorbit Vivas. MJ Melendez scores. Mark Vientos scores. Brett Baty to 3rd. Marcus Semien to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman Jorbit Vivas.0–3
1Bo Bichette homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
