Rockies at Mets
Last play · MJ Melendez strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Mets0%
COL 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 1 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+218 / -271
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyrone Taylor homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — +22% Mets
7Jake McCarthy singles on a ground ball to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Brett Sullivan scores.3–1
6Troy Johnston grounds into a double play, shortstop Bo Bichette to first baseman Mark Vientos. Edouard Julien scores. Mickey Moniak to 3rd. TJ Rumfield out at 2nd. Troy Johnston out at 1st.2–1
5Tyrone Taylor homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
4Troy Johnston singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Edouard Julien scores. Mickey Moniak to 3rd. TJ Rumfield to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
