Nationals at Mets
Last play · Ronny Mauricio strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets0%
WSH 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 3 – 3 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · CJ Abrams homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Daylen Lile scores. (inning 8) — -52% Nationals
8CJ Abrams homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Daylen Lile scores.5–4
6Mark Vientos doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Juan Soto scores.3–4
3MJ Melendez homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Bo Bichette scores. Juan Soto scores.3–3
3CJ Abrams singles on a line drive to left fielder MJ Melendez. Luis García Jr. scores.3–0
2Jacob Young singles on a ground ball to right fielder Brett Baty. Nasim Nuñez scores.2–0
2Nasim Nuñez reaches on a throwing error by pitcher Freddy Peralta. Jorbit Vivas scores. Nasim Nuñez to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
