Nationals at Mets
Last play · Juan Soto flies out to right fielder Joey Wiemer.
Win probability
Mets0%
WSH 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 9 – 2 NYM
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.7% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+139 / -169
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · CJ Abrams singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. James Wood scores. Curtis Mead to 3rd. (inning 1) — -12% Nationals
9Curtis Mead homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.14–2
7Jacob Young singles on a line drive to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. James Wood scores. Curtis Mead to 3rd. CJ Abrams to 2nd.13–2
7James Wood doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Joey Wiemer scores. Nasim Nuñez scores.12–2
6CJ Abrams singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Curtis Mead scores. Brady House to 3rd. CJ Abrams to 2nd.10–2
5MJ Melendez singles on a ground ball to first baseman Curtis Mead. Bo Bichette scores. Juan Soto to 2nd.9–2
4Brady House hits a grand slam (4) to left center field. Nasim Nuñez scores. James Wood scores. Curtis Mead scores.9–1
4Curtis Mead hit by pitch. Joey Wiemer scores. Nasim Nuñez to 3rd. James Wood to 2nd.5–1
4James Wood walks. Daylen Lile scores. Joey Wiemer to 3rd. Nasim Nuñez to 2nd.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
