Tigers at Mets
DET2–
NYM10Last play · Jahmai Jones called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mets100%
DET 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 2 – 3 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dillon Dingler homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 2) — -20% Tigers
8A.J. Ewing walks. Mark Vientos scores. Austin Slater to 3rd. Marcus Semien to 2nd.2–10
8Austin Slater reaches on a fielding error by pitcher Ricky Vanasco. Juan Soto scores. Mark Vientos to 2nd.2–9
7Luis Torrens singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. A.J. Ewing scores.2–8
7A.J. Ewing triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Brett Baty scores.2–7
6Juan Soto grounds out to first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Carson Benge scores. Bo Bichette to 2nd.2–6
6Bo Bichette reaches on a fielder's choice. A.J. Ewing scores. Luis Torrens scores. Carson Benge to 3rd. Throwing error by third baseman Gage Workman.2–5
4Carson Benge singles on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Francisco Alvarez scores.2–3
3Mark Vientos singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Bo Bichette scores. Juan Soto to 2nd.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.