Tigers at Mets
Last play · Wenceel Pérez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
DET 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 3 – 6 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gage Workman homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Colt Keith scores. Riley Greene scores. (inning 1) — -28% Tigers
8Marcus Semien homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.4–9
8Dillon Dingler homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.4–8
7Juan Soto homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.3–8
6Hayden Senger hits a sacrifice bunt. Marcus Semien scores. A.J. Ewing to 2nd. Hayden Senger to 1st.3–7
5Mark Vientos homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Juan Soto scores.3–6
5Juan Soto singles on a ground ball to center fielder Wenceel Pérez. Carson Benge scores.3–4
4Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Brett Baty homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. MJ Melendez scores.3–3
3A.J. Ewing homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
