Yankees at Mets
Last play · Marcus Semien lines out to third baseman Ryan McMahon.
Win probability
Mets0%
NYY 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 4 – 0 NYM
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jazz Chisholm Jr. doubles (8) on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger scores. (inning 3) — -21% Yankees
9Brett Baty singles on a ground ball to right fielder Aaron Judge. MJ Melendez scores.5–2
9Ben Rice homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field.5–1
7Juan Soto homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.4–1
5Spencer Jones singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.4–0
3Jazz Chisholm Jr. doubles (8) on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger scores.3–0
3Cody Bellinger doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Ben Rice scores. Aaron Judge to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
