Yankees at Mets
Last play · Carson Benge reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by left fielder Max Schuemann. Marcus Semien scores. Luis Torrens to 2nd.
Win probability
Mets100%
NYY 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 1 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyrone Taylor homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Carson Benge scores. Juan Soto scores. (inning 9) — +56% Mets
10Carson Benge reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by left fielder Max Schuemann. Marcus Semien scores. Luis Torrens to 2nd.6–7
9Tyrone Taylor homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Carson Benge scores. Juan Soto scores.6–6
7Anthony Volpe walks. Cody Bellinger scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 3rd. Max Schuemann to 2nd.6–3
6Luis Torrens doubles (5) on a ground ball to right fielder Cody Bellinger. Marcus Semien scores. A.J. Ewing scores.5–3
6Trent Grisham reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Bo Bichette. Anthony Volpe scores. Trent Grisham to 2nd.5–1
6Amed Rosario out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Carson Benge. Max Schuemann scores. Anthony Volpe to 2nd.4–1
6Anthony Volpe singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyrone Taylor. Cody Bellinger scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Max Schuemann to 3rd.3–1
4Marcus Semien doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Jones. Mark Vientos scores. Brett Baty to 3rd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
