Yankees at Mets
Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. grounds out to first baseman Mark Vientos.
Win probability
Mets100%
NYY 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 5 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mark Vientos grounds out, third baseman Amed Rosario to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. (inning 3) — +25% Mets
7Mark Vientos grounds out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Bo Bichette scores.3–6
7Cody Bellinger reaches on a fielding error by right fielder Carson Benge. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger to 2nd.3–5
5Mark Vientos doubles (6) on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger, deflected by third baseman Amed Rosario. Carson Benge scores. Juan Soto scores.2–5
5Paul Goldschmidt singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Ben Rice scores. Cody Bellinger to 2nd.2–3
4Brett Baty doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Aaron Judge. Austin Slater scores.1–3
3Mark Vientos grounds out, third baseman Amed Rosario to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.1–2
2Trent Grisham singles on a ground ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
