Reds at Mets
Last play · Blake Dunn strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
CIN 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 3 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Brett Baty. Tyler Stephenson scores. Blake Dunn to 3rd. Elly De La Cruz to 2nd. (inning 6) — -14% Reds
7Carson Benge singles on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Jared Young scores.2–4
6Sal Stewart singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Brett Baty. Tyler Stephenson scores. Blake Dunn to 3rd. Elly De La Cruz to 2nd.2–3
5Carson Benge singles on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Brett Baty scores. Luis Torrens to 3rd.1–3
3Nathaniel Lowe singles on a ground ball to center fielder A.J. Ewing, deflected by shortstop Bo Bichette. Elly De La Cruz scores. Eugenio Suárez to 3rd.1–2
2Eric Wagaman homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.0–2
1Juan Soto homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
