Reds at Mets
CIN7–
NYM2Last play · Carson Benge grounds out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Mets0%
CIN 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 7 – 0 NYM
Reds led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Steer grounds into a force out, shortstop Bo Bichette to second baseman Marcus Semien. Sal Stewart scores. Eugenio Suárez to 3rd. Nathaniel Lowe out at 2nd. Spencer Steer to 1st. (inning 2) — -15% Reds
7Carson Benge grounds out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. Brett Baty scores.7–2
6Marcus Semien homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.7–1
4Tyler Stephenson homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Spencer Steer scores.7–0
4Spencer Steer singles on a ground ball to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Eugenio Suárez scores. Nathaniel Lowe scores.5–0
3JJ Bleday homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.3–0
2Tyler Stephenson strikes out swinging.2–0
2Spencer Steer grounds into a force out, shortstop Bo Bichette to second baseman Marcus Semien. Sal Stewart scores. Eugenio Suárez to 3rd. Nathaniel Lowe out at 2nd. Spencer Steer to 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.