Reds at Mets
Last play · Eric Wagaman grounds out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Mets0%
CIN 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 5 – 0 NYM
Reds led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Sal Stewart scores. Spencer Steer scores. (inning 1) — -21% Reds
8Sal Stewart singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge, deflected by second baseman Marcus Semien. Blake Dunn scores. Elly De La Cruz to 3rd.7–2
6Juan Soto homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Bo Bichette scores.6–2
6Tyler Stephenson doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder MJ Melendez. JJ Bleday scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. Tyler Stephenson advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Bo Bichette.6–0
4Elly De La Cruz doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Tyler Stephenson scores. Matt McLain scores.5–0
4Tyler Stephenson singles on a soft line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Dane Myers scores. JJ Bleday to 3rd.3–0
1Eugenio Suárez doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Sal Stewart scores. Spencer Steer scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
