Marlins at Mets
Last play · Christopher Morel strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
MIA 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 3 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mark Vientos doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Juan Soto scores. Jared Young scores. (inning 4) — +22% Mets
7Juan Soto singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Carson Benge scores. Bo Bichette to 2nd.1–6
7Hayden Senger homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.1–5
6Jared Young homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
5Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Christopher Morel scores.1–3
4Marcus Semien singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Mark Vientos scores. Marcus Semien to 2nd.0–3
4Mark Vientos doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Juan Soto scores. Jared Young scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
