Marlins at Mets
Last play · Liam Hicks lines out to third baseman Brett Baty.
Win probability
Mets100%
MIA 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 5 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+133 / -161
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcus Semien homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Mark Vientos scores. (inning 2) — +16% Mets
6Juan Soto hits a grand slam (13) to right center field. Luis Torrens scores. Carson Benge scores. Bo Bichette scores.1–10
6Bo Bichette walks. Marcus Semien scores. Luis Torrens to 3rd. Carson Benge to 2nd.1–6
4Luis Torrens singles on a ground ball to right fielder Owen Caissie. A.J. Ewing scores. Brett Baty scores. Marcus Semien to 3rd.1–5
4Owen Caissie doubles (9) on a fly ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Javier Sanoja scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd.1–3
2Marcus Semien homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Mark Vientos scores.0–3
1Carson Benge homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
