Cardinals at Mets
Last play · Nathan Church strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
STL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 4 – 4 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+122 / -148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jimmy Crooks homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Masyn Winn scores. (inning 2) — -25% Cardinals
7Juan Soto homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field.4–5
5Jared Young singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Juan Soto scores. Jared Young to 2nd.4–4
2Jimmy Crooks homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Masyn Winn scores.4–3
2Lars Nootbaar homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.2–3
1Jared Young homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.1–3
1Bo Bichette homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Carson Benge scores.1–2
1Alec Burleson homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
