Braves at Mets
ATL5–
NYM7Last play · Matt Olson strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Mets100%
ATL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 7 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+107 / -129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bo Bichette hits a grand slam (8) to right field. MJ Melendez scores. Luis Torrens scores. Carson Benge scores. (inning 2) — +31% Mets
8Eli White singles on a ground ball to shortstop Bo Bichette, deflected by third baseman Brett Baty. Ozzie Albies scores. Austin Riley to 3rd.5–7
8Ozzie Albies singles on a ground ball to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Michael Harris II scores.4–7
5Matt Olson homers (20) on a line drive to center field.3–7
4Bo Bichette out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. MJ Melendez scores. Carson Benge to 2nd.2–7
2Bo Bichette hits a grand slam (8) to right field. MJ Melendez scores. Luis Torrens scores. Carson Benge scores.2–6
2Mike Yastrzemski singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Dominic Smith scores. Austin Riley to 3rd.2–2
2Dominic Smith singles on a ground ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Ozzie Albies scores.1–2
1Juan Soto homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.