Braves at Mets
Last play · Francisco Alvarez grounds into a double play, pitcher Raisel Iglesias to second baseman Ozzie Albies to first baseman Matt Olson. Marcus Semien out at 2nd. Francisco Alvarez out at 1st.
Win probability
Mets0%
ATL 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 0 NYM
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mark Vientos singles on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Bo Bichette scores. (inning 6) — +16% Mets
8Michael Harris II homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.3–1
6Mark Vientos singles on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Bo Bichette scores.2–1
4Eli White homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.2–0
2Eli White doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder MJ Melendez. Matt Olson scores. Eli White to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
