Braves at Mets
Last play · Jorge Mateo lines out to center fielder A.J. Ewing.
Win probability
Mets100%
ATL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 6 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · A.J. Ewing doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Juan Soto scores. Jared Young scores. A.J. Ewing to 3rd. Throwing error by left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. (inning 1) — +17% Mets
8Juan Soto singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Carson Benge scores. Bo Bichette scores.1–8
5Marcus Semien homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.1–6
5A.J. Ewing homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.1–5
1Brett Baty singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. A.J. Ewing scores.1–4
1A.J. Ewing doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Juan Soto scores. Jared Young scores. A.J. Ewing to 3rd. Throwing error by left fielder Mike Yastrzemski.1–3
1Jared Young singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Bo Bichette scores. Juan Soto to 3rd.1–1
1Dominic Smith out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder MJ Melendez. Michael Harris II scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
