Cubs at Mets
CHC9–
NYM6Last play · Mark Vientos strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets0%
CHC 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 7 – 2 NYM
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Matt Shaw scores. Carson Kelly scores. (inning 2) — -18% Cubs
9Bo Bichette homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Carson Benge scores.9–6
9Carson Benge singles on a line drive to right fielder Matt Shaw. Brett Baty scores.9–4
8Dansby Swanson doubles (9) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Jared Young. Carson Kelly scores.9–3
8Carson Kelly doubles (8) on a fly ball to left fielder Jared Young. Nico Hoerner scores.8–3
7Francisco Alvarez homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.7–3
4Dansby Swanson homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Carson Kelly scores.7–2
2Francisco Alvarez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Marcus Semien scores. Brett Baty scores. MJ Melendez to 3rd.5–2
2Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Matt Shaw scores. Carson Kelly scores.5–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.