Cubs at Mets
Last play · MJ Melendez grounds out, first baseman Michael Busch to pitcher Tyler Ferguson.
Win probability
Mets0%
CHC 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 3 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dansby Swanson homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Nico Hoerner scores. Miguel Amaya scores. (inning 6) — -39% Cubs
8Dansby Swanson hits a grand slam (11) to left center field. Ian Happ scores. Nico Hoerner scores. Miguel Amaya scores.10–3
6Dansby Swanson homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Nico Hoerner scores. Miguel Amaya scores.6–3
5Michael Busch homers (9) on a line drive to right field. Michael Conforto scores.3–3
5Michael Conforto doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder MJ Melendez. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–3
4Francisco Alvarez homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.0–3
4Jared Young homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Bo Bichette scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
