Cubs at Mets
Last play · Carson Benge grounds out sharply, third baseman Alex Bregman to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Mets0%
CHC 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 0 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jared Young homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 7) — +28% Mets
10Pete Crow-Armstrong doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Matt Shaw scores.4–3
7Jared Young homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.3–3
6Eric Wagaman homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. A.J. Ewing scores.3–2
6Ian Happ singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Alex Bregman scores.3–0
6Alex Bregman doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Michael Conforto scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd. Alex Bregman advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by right fielder Carson Benge.2–0
6Michael Conforto singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Dansby Swanson scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
