Cubs at Mets
CHC10–
NYM5Last play · Francisco Lindor lines out to shortstop Dansby Swanson.
Win probability
Mets0%
CHC 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 4 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · A.J. Ewing homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Eric Wagaman scores. (inning 2) — +20% Mets
9Dansby Swanson singles on a line drive to left fielder MJ Melendez. Carson Kelly scores. Pedro Ramírez scores.10–5
9Pedro Ramírez singles on a pop up to right fielder Carson Benge. Nico Hoerner scores. Carson Kelly to 3rd.8–5
8Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a ground ball to first baseman Mark Vientos. Pedro Ramírez scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Mark Vientos.7–5
6Bo Bichette homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.6–5
6Matt Shaw grounds into a force out, second baseman Marcus Semien to shortstop Francisco Lindor. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong out at 2nd. Matt Shaw to 1st.6–4
6Dansby Swanson triples (2) on a fly ball to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Pedro Ramírez scores.5–4
4Mark Vientos homers (10) on a line drive to left center field.4–4
4Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a bunt ground ball to shortstop Francisco Lindor. Pedro Ramírez scores. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.4–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.