Phillies at Mets
Last play · Jared Young challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Jared Young called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mets0%
PHI 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 1 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trea Turner singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Juan Soto. Derek Hill scores. Bryson Stott to 2nd. (inning 7) — -19% Phillies
7Trea Turner singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Juan Soto. Derek Hill scores. Bryson Stott to 2nd.2–1
4Jared Young singles on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Marsh. Bo Bichette scores.1–1
1Bryce Harper singles on a ground ball to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
