Phillies at Mets
Last play · Gabriel Rincones Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
PHI 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 0 NYM
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+111 / -134
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Francisco Lindor triples (3) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Juan Soto scores. Bo Bichette scores. (inning 6) — +31% Mets
7Bo Bichette out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Juan Soto scores.2–6
7Juan Soto triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Carson Benge scores.2–5
6A.J. Ewing singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Francisco Lindor scores. Jared Young scores. Mark Vientos to 2nd.2–4
6Francisco Lindor triples (3) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Juan Soto scores. Bo Bichette scores.2–2
3Bryce Harper homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field. Trea Turner scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
