Phillies at Mets
PHI5–
NYM4Last play · Luis Torrens lines out to right fielder Derek Hill.
Win probability
Mets0%
PHI 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 1 NYM
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Schwarber homers (30) on a fly ball to center field. Justin Crawford scores. (inning 7) — -41% Phillies
7Kyle Schwarber homers (30) on a fly ball to center field. Justin Crawford scores.5–4
6Carson Benge grounds into a force out, pitcher Kyle Backhus to third baseman Alec Bohm to second baseman Bryson Stott. Brett Baty scores. Luis Torrens out at 2nd. Carson Benge to 1st.3–4
6A.J. Ewing homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Francisco Alvarez scores.3–3
5Carson Benge singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Tyrone Taylor scores. Brett Baty to 3rd.3–1
3Brandon Marsh singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Alec Bohm scores.3–0
3Alec Bohm doubles (11) on a ground ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Kyle Schwarber scores.2–0
3Bryce Harper out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.