Royals at Mets
Last play · Luis Torrens grounds out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Jac Caglianone.
Win probability
Mets0%
KC 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 9 – 9 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Benge singles on a ground ball to pitcher Seth Lugo. A.J. Ewing scores. Bo Bichette scores. Carson Benge scores. Throwing error by pitcher Seth Lugo. Throwing error by first baseman Jac Caglianone. Throwing error by third baseman Nick Loftin. (inning 1) — +24% Mets
8Carson Benge singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Tolbert. A.J. Ewing scores. Francisco Lindor to 3rd.16–12
7Brett Baty out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Lane Thomas. Jorge Polanco scores.16–11
7Jorge Polanco doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Tyler Tolbert. Carson Benge scores.16–10
7Lane Thomas doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Juan Soto. Tyler Tolbert scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.16–9
7Bobby Witt Jr. grounds into a force out, shortstop Francisco Lindor to second baseman Brett Baty. Michael Massey scores. Tyler Tolbert to 3rd. Carter Jensen out at 2nd. Bobby Witt Jr. to 1st.14–9
7Carter Jensen walks. Isaac Collins scores. Michael Massey to 3rd. Tyler Tolbert to 2nd.13–9
7Nick Loftin homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Salvador Perez scores.12–9
7Salvador Perez doubles (13) on a fly ball to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Lane Thomas scores.10–9
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
