Royals at Mets
KC3–
NYM7Last play · Jac Caglianone grounds out, second baseman Brett Baty to first baseman Jared Young.
Win probability
Mets100%
KC 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 6 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyrone Taylor homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — +22% Mets
7Juan Soto homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field.3–7
7Jac Caglianone doubles (15) on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Nick Loftin scores.3–6
5Francisco Alvarez singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Carson Benge scores.2–6
5Carson Benge singles on a fly ball to center fielder Lane Thomas. A.J. Ewing scores. Juan Soto scores. Carson Benge to 3rd. Throwing error by center fielder Lane Thomas.2–5
5Bo Bichette out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Lane Thomas. Brett Baty scores.2–3
5Tyrone Taylor homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
4Bobby Witt Jr. homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
2Jared Young doubles (5) on a fly ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Carson Benge scores.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.