Royals at Mets
Last play · Bobby Witt Jr. strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Mets100%
KC 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 1 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -199
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jared Young hit by pitch. Francisco Lindor scores. Carson Benge to 3rd. Jorge Polanco to 2nd. (inning 8) — +29% Mets
9Carter Jensen doubles (18) on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Josh Rojas scores.2–6
8Francisco Alvarez singles on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Brett Baty scores.1–6
8Brett Baty singles on a line drive to center fielder Lane Thomas. Carson Benge scores. Tyrone Taylor scores. Jared Young to 3rd.1–4
8Jared Young hit by pitch. Francisco Lindor scores. Carson Benge to 3rd. Jorge Polanco to 2nd.1–2
6Salvador Perez singles on a line drive to left fielder Juan Soto. Jac Caglianone scores.1–1
1A.J. Ewing homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
