Red Sox at Mets
Last play · Tyrone Taylor pops out to second baseman Anthony Seigler.
Win probability
Mets0%
BOS 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 1 NYM
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Anthony Seigler homers (2) on a line drive to left field. Tsung-Che Cheng scores. (inning 7) — -22% Red Sox
9Brett Baty homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.6–2
9Wilyer Abreu homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.6–1
7Anthony Seigler homers (2) on a line drive to left field. Tsung-Che Cheng scores.4–1
3Juan Soto out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jarren Duran. Brett Baty scores. Throwing error by third baseman Caleb Durbin.2–1
1Masataka Yoshida doubles (9) on a ground ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Anthony Seigler scores. Wilyer Abreu scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
