Red Sox at Mets
Last play · Tyrone Taylor flies out to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
Win probability
Mets0%
BOS 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 0 NYM
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 52% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andruw Monasterio homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Caleb Durbin scores. (inning 4) — -26% Red Sox
8Masataka Yoshida homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Caleb Durbin scores.4–0
4Andruw Monasterio homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Caleb Durbin scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
