Red Sox at Mets
Last play · Bo Bichette grounds out to first baseman Andruw Monasterio.
Win probability
Mets0%
BOS 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 1 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarren Duran singles on a fly ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Tsung-Che Cheng scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd. Andruw Monasterio to 2nd. (inning 9) — -38% Red Sox
10Anthony Seigler out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Tyrone Taylor. Masataka Yoshida scores.3–2
9Jarren Duran singles on a fly ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Tsung-Che Cheng scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd. Andruw Monasterio to 2nd.2–2
9Andruw Monasterio walks. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Tsung-Che Cheng to 3rd. Caleb Durbin to 2nd.1–2
6Francisco Lindor homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.0–2
1Francisco Lindor doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nate Eaton. A.J. Ewing scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
