Dodgers at Mets
Last play · Carson Benge lines out sharply to center fielder Andy Pages.
Win probability
Mets0%
LAD 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 1 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Tucker homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Freddie Freeman scores. (inning 8) — -21% Dodgers
8Francisco Alvarez homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.4–2
8Kyle Tucker homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Freddie Freeman scores.4–1
7Shohei Ohtani out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Teoscar Hernández scores. Dalton Rushing to 3rd.2–1
4Miguel Rojas out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Carson Benge. Freddie Freeman scores.1–1
2Luis Robert Jr. homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
