Dodgers at Mets
Last play · Carson Benge strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets0%
LAD 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 4 – 1 NYM
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-161 / +133
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyrone Taylor doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Carson Benge scores. Luis Robert Jr. scores. (inning 8) — +22% Mets
8Tyrone Taylor doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Carson Benge scores. Luis Robert Jr. scores.4–3
5Bo Bichette singles on a line drive to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Brett Baty scores. A.J. Ewing to 3rd.4–1
5Andy Pages singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Teoscar Hernández scores.4–0
3Max Muncy strikes out swinging.3–0
3Andy Pages grounds into a force out, first baseman Brett Baty to shortstop Francisco Lindor. Dalton Rushing scores. Shohei Ohtani out at 2nd. Andy Pages to 1st.2–0
3Kyle Tucker homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
