Dodgers at Mets
Last play · Alex Freeland strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
LAD 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 3 – 1 NYM
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyrone Taylor homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Carson Benge scores. Luis Robert Jr. scores. (inning 6) — +51% Mets
7Marcus Semien homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Bo Bichette scores. Jorge Polanco scores.3–8
7Carson Benge strikes out swinging.3–5
6Tyrone Taylor homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Carson Benge scores. Luis Robert Jr. scores.3–4
4Eliezer Alfonzo grounds out, pitcher Freddy Peralta to second baseman Brett Baty to first baseman Jared Young. Tommy Edman scores. Kyle Tucker to 3rd. Teoscar Hernández to 2nd.3–1
3Max Muncy grounds out, second baseman Brett Baty to first baseman Jared Young. Andy Pages scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.2–1
3Freddie Freeman doubles (27) on a line drive to left fielder Tyrone Taylor. Eliezer Alfonzo scores. Andy Pages to 3rd.1–1
1Francisco Lindor singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. A.J. Ewing scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
