Braves at Mets
Last play · Luis Robert Jr. flies out to left fielder Mauricio Dubón.
Win probability
Mets0%
ATL 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 0 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-184 / +151
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Jim Jarvis scores. Drake Baldwin to 3rd. (inning 6) — -14% Braves
6Matt Olson singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Jim Jarvis scores. Drake Baldwin to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
