Braves at Mets
ATL3–
NYM14Last play · Ozzie Albies grounds out softly, second baseman Marcus Semien to first baseman Jared Young.
Win probability
Mets100%
ATL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 3 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 52.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcus Semien homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. Tyrone Taylor scores. (inning 6) — +31% Mets
8Francisco Lindor homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Marcus Semien scores. Luis Torrens scores.3–14
8A.J. Ewing out on a sacrifice fly to third baseman Austin Riley in foul territory. Tyrone Taylor scores.3–11
8Luis Torrens walks. Jared Young scores. Tyrone Taylor to 3rd. Marcus Semien to 2nd.3–10
7Bo Bichette out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. Marcus Semien scores. Luis Torrens to 3rd.3–9
7Tyrone Taylor homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Francisco Alvarez scores. Jared Young scores.3–8
6Marcus Semien homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. Tyrone Taylor scores.3–5
4Ozzie Albies homers (18) on a line drive to left center field. Matt Olson scores.3–3
3Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Francisco Lindor homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. A.J. Ewing scores.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.