Braves at Mets
Last play · Austin Riley strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
ATL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 2 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson homers (28) on a fly ball to center field. Drake Baldwin scores. (inning 6) — -31% Braves
7Carson Benge doubles (14) on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. A.J. Ewing scores. Francisco Lindor to 3rd.2–3
6Matt Olson homers (28) on a fly ball to center field. Drake Baldwin scores.2–2
5A.J. Ewing out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. Brett Baty scores.0–2
5Francisco Alvarez doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Eli White. Tyrone Taylor scores. Brett Baty to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
