Marlins at Mets
Last play · Javier Sanoja pops out to second baseman Marcus Semien.
Win probability
Mets100%
MIA 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 0 NYM
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Robert Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Bo Bichette scores. Carson Benge scores. Luis Robert Jr. to 2nd. (inning 8) — +34% Mets
8Luis Robert Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Bo Bichette scores. Carson Benge scores. Luis Robert Jr. to 2nd.2–4
7Jakob Marsee homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
6Luis Robert Jr. reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Graham Pauley. Francisco Lindor scores. Bo Bichette to 2nd.1–2
6Francisco Lindor singles on a line drive to right fielder Griffin Conine. Francisco Alvarez scores.1–1
4Kyle Stowers homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
