Marlins at Mets
Last play · Marcus Semien flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
Win probability
Mets0%
MIA 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 4 – 2 NYM
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+112 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyrone Taylor homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Marcus Semien scores. (inning 2) — +21% Mets
6Liam Hicks singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Otto Lopez scores.6–2
6Griffin Conine homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.5–2
4Otto Lopez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Carson Benge. Esteury Ruiz scores.4–2
2Tyrone Taylor homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Marcus Semien scores.3–2
2Javier Sanoja homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Kyle Stowers scores.3–0
1Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tyrone Taylor. Otto Lopez scores. Liam Hicks to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
