Marlins at Mets
Last play · A.J. Ewing flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
Win probability
Mets0%
MIA 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 0 NYM
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joe Mack homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 5) — -16% Marlins
9Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Otto Lopez scores.2–0
5Joe Mack homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
