Nationals at Mets
Last play · Abimelec Ortiz strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
WSH 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 0 NYM
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+106 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Benge singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Bo Bichette scores. Luis Robert Jr. to 3rd. (inning 6) — +19% Mets
7Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Luis Torrens scores. Francisco Lindor to 3rd.1–4
7Jared Young homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.1–3
6Carson Benge singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Bo Bichette scores. Luis Robert Jr. to 3rd.1–2
6Francisco Lindor homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
3Brady House singles on a ground ball to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. CJ Abrams scores. Abimelec Ortiz to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
