Nationals at Mets
Last play · Harry Ford strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
WSH 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 4 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+148 / -160
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Torrens homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Brett Baty scores. (inning 4) — +29% Mets
7Keibert Ruiz singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Jorbit Vivas scores.3–4
5Jared Young doubles (12) on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Francisco Lindor scores.2–4
4Luis Torrens homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Brett Baty scores.2–3
4Jorge Polanco grounds out to first baseman Abimelec Ortiz. Jared Young scores. Brett Baty to 3rd.2–1
3Abimelec Ortiz homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.2–0
2Keibert Ruiz singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Daylen Lile scores. Brady House out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Carson Benge to shortstop Francisco Lindor to third baseman Bo Bichette to shortstop Francisco Lindor. Keibert Ruiz to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
